Shifting economic realities in the United States have created conditions that could herald a trend in the US dollar ($US) not seen for some time.
That’s the view Mahjabeen Zaman, ANZ’s Head of FX Research, shared with attendees at the 2025 ANZ Debt Conference.
Speaking on video at the sidelines of the conference, Zaman said the $US had been the most overvalued in “four decades” and that ANZ Research believes it's time for a reversal.
“We think productivity is starting to move lower, labour productivity is starting to move lower, [and] Fed rate cuts are starting to get priced in,” she said.
“This moderation in US growth on the back of growth concerns from tariffs is likely going to weigh on the dollar and this could be start of a trend that we have not seen in a long time.”
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More than 300 people attended the ANZ Debt Conference. Now in its 15th year, the conference is the largest of its kind in Australia. You can watch the video above to find out more.
Zaman said ANZ Research expected tariff activity in the US to impact inflation; likely by “between 0.2 per cent to 0.4 per cent”.
“Of course, this does not include the weakness in demand, which could actually have a lesser impact on inflation,” she said.
