There’s always uncertainty. But despite all the uncertainty, economic fundamentals remain resilient across key global economies, and the risk of global recession is low.
That’s the view of ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga, who told the 2025 ANZ Debt Conference that a softening in monetary policy was already being supported by low delinquencies and strong underlying demand.
“And what it leads us to is a world which, despite all the uncertainty and the shocks we've had, has been incredibly resilient,” he said.
“We're in our third, 3 per cent [average growth] year for the global economy, and we expect a couple more.
“[US president Donald] Trump definitely brings uncertainty, but the world's not particularly vulnerable, I don't think, economically.”
You can watch the video below for highlights of the presentation.
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Yetsenga said household balance sheets — “the prism through which I think it's best to analyse [the impact of interest rates] on the world” — were strong across key economies, and in some cases “in the best shape I've seen in my career”.
“The Australian household sector has never been in better financial shape, in aggregate,” he said.
Yetsenga said ANZ Research expected more interest-rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2025, and further easing from the European Central Bank, Bank of England and People’s Bank of China.
“It's all been a bit de-correlated, a bit mid-cycle slowdown,” he said. “But there's still clearly, in our view, an easing theme going on globally.”
