The only certainty in global trade is the current era of disruption will continue, according to ANZ’s MD International Simon Ireland. But the good news is the mechanics of trade across the Asian region are resilient.
Speaking to ANZ Institutional Insights on video, Ireland said rather than waiting for certainty, businesses in the region are simply “dealing with the situation they've got” and getting to work.
“The only certainty really is that this disruption, or this ongoing approach to global trade — especially from the US — is going to continue,” he said.
“What we do know though is the supply chains are still all working, the logistics are working, deliveries are working. So that hasn't really caused a problem.”
You can see the comments on video below.
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Still there
While admitting there had been “increases in pricing” across some key markets, Ireland said indicators of demand, like order activity, were “still there”.
“There's very few parts of the trade network that have broken down to zero,” he said, noting it was “highly operational” overall right now.
“We're seeing a consistent flow of product, and with interest rates coming down, we're also seeing margins get squeezed,” Ireland said. “So actually, the cost of trading… is getting somewhat cheaper.”
Ireland said geopolitical pressures continued to be a factor in markets, particularly with the conflict in Europe, as well as tensions between the United States and China.
Some “protectionism” has followed, he said. The exact impact of such activity is still yet unknown, with much of tariffs between the US and China “yet to take effect”.
“I'd say the biggest effect is not so much what's coming directly in,” Ireland said, but markets peripheral to the US and China.
“Certain places like North Vietnam, where a lot of manufacturing went out of China, as well as certain parts of Mexico,” he said. “They're feeling [the effects].”
