Three key macroeconomic themes loom as the financial services sector gathers for the 2024 Sibos conference – themes that will shape the global economy for the next 12 months.
The first is the interest-rate easing cycle that has been embarked upon in the United States. The US Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis-point cut in September, and now the question is how much, and how frequently, they will cut again.
Corporate treasurers and investors will be watching closely. Upcoming US economic data will be critical.
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The second factor to watch will be the prospect for economic stimulus in China.
ANZ Research continues to have confidence in its 4.9 per cent growth forecast for China in 2024. But it has revised down its expectation for 2025 to 4.3 per cent, as China has yet to fix some structural issues.
Inflation remains a key factor. How sustainable any stimulus will be, and how it impacts the growth outlook, will be something for investors to keep an eye on.
The final factor is the upcoming US election. The prospect of a return to trade-war conditions is not ideal, and trade proposals in the US – including the prospect of universal tariffs on Chinese goods – would have a significant impact if implemented.
Markets will be watching the US White House closely in the early parts of 2025.
Raymond Yeung Chief Economist, Greater China, ANZ
